Market Activity Shifts, Bitcoin Dominates: ETH and TON Experience a Quiet Rebound

This past week felt as if the crypto world exhaled – not a full-blown rally, but enough to alleviate the heavy gloom that has enveloped the market since early April. The macro conditions didn’t take a bullish turn, but they did stop swinging erratically. Bitcoin remains at the forefront, naturally. Ethereum made an attempt to keep pace, though it struggled. TON remained stable, even as its ecosystem gradually grew behind the scenes. If we had to assign a mood to the week, it would be one of cautious optimism paired with some RSI divergence. Let’s dissect the dynamics: who made moves, who stayed put, and why all of this is important.

Bitcoin

It kicked off with an unexpected pause – Trump discreetly put a hold on tariffs concerning certain technology imports. It wasn't a grand gesture, yet it was sufficient to alleviate pressures on risk-driven assets.

Source: Donald Trump

Then, a gentler Producer Price Index (PPI) report surfaced, just dovish enough to send the dollar tumbling to a three-year low. By the time the markets absorbed both pieces of information, the narrative had shifted: perhaps the Fed isn’t as trapped as previously thought, and there might still be room for flexibility.

US PPI for final demand. Source: BLS

Bitcoin was quick to pick up on this trend. It surged past the $74K mark, continuing its ascent to around $86K before settling back to approximately $83,400. This wasn't merely a spike in momentum — it was a blend of opportunity meeting reduced resistance. As we know, when the dollar stumbles, Bitcoin tends to thrive.

BTC/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour RSI has receded from its overbought condition, signaling the possibility of sideways movement that could entice some breakout traders, maybe even stage a false breakdown. However, as long as macro conditions remain stable and inflows keep coming, the path of least resistance is still upward.

Arthur Hayes

You could almost sense a shift in the atmosphere. ETF outflows began to slow, while investment from whale wallets picked up. At the same time, retail sentiment was at a peak of dread. Arthur Hayes chimed in with his characteristic mix of chaos and insight, hinting that this might be the platform for reaching $100K. Perhaps. The technical analysis doesn’t rule it out; the infrastructure is there. Yet, for the volatility to cooperate, that’s akin to asking a raccoon to behave in a pastry shop.

Ethereum

Meanwhile, Ethereum tried to keep up, but let’s be honest — it was more like it was jogging while Bitcoin was sprinting. Moving from a low of about $1,360 to a high near $1,680, ETH is currently sitting around the mid-$1,580s.

ETH/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView

It was what traders refer to as a “shadow rally” — ETH climbing in Bitcoin’s wake but failing to establish its own narrative. The ETH/BTC ratio continuously declines, reflecting exactly where the investor's preferences lie. Right now, traders aren't moving from BTC to other major coins. Why shift to the apprentice when the master is casting spells?

ETH/BTC profitable days. Source: James Check

The SEC’s approval of Ether ETF options offered ETH a slight boost, sure. But that wasn’t the headline traders were truly hoping for — that would be the green light for staking-based ETFs that tap into Ethereum’s economic fundamentals. Without that, there’s no significant influx of new capital or substantial changes in market dynamics, just background noise.

Many people are inquiring about the timeline for Ethereum ETF staking approvals. While it’s possible they could receive early approval for staking, the ultimate deadline falls at the end of October.

There may be interim deadlines expected before the final decision (or rejection) at the end of May and late August. https://t.co/EKPfC65IRF

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) April 9, 2025

So, in technical terms, ETH is meandering. It’s hovering near the 50-day SMA, with RSI floating in the middle ground. Whether it makes a breakout or slips back will hinge on one pivotal aspect: Bitcoin.

Toncoin (TON)

TON’s been playing it cool — oscillating between $2.80 and $3.20, trapped in that narrow sideways range with the certainty of a coin toss. Right now, it’s lingering around $2.82, clinging to the lower end as if waiting for a catalyst to trigger a move.

TON/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView

However, price movement isn’t the complete picture. Beneath the surface, TON has been laying the groundwork. The team just rolled out a beta for the TON Payment Network — a Layer 2 solution designed for swift and low-cost transactions, already integrated with TON Proxy. Think microtransactions, live tips, and in-game rewards. It may not be the sort of news that grabs headlines, but it’s the kind of infrastructure that lays a solid foundation for future development.

Source: Github

Meanwhile, @wallet is preparing for its launch in the U.S., and Telegram has quietly started verifying channels. It’s a subtle move, but one that lends a layer of credibility to a system that has often had to navigate with one eye on regulatory scrutiny.

But therein lies the problem: none of this is reflected in the price. The RSI remains weak. The 50-SMA acts like a ceiling. Without a surge in volume, there’s no breakout. Traders haven’t adjusted their evaluations yet, possibly because they've encountered numerous eye-catching roadmaps that lacked real substance. Genuine adoption — not just technical releases — is what truly influences market movements today.

Conclusion: What Can We Expect This Week?

Bitcoin continues to be the epicenter around which the market revolves — and this week, external conditions played a role in its movement. With tariffs on hold and inflation easing, there was just enough space for risk appetite to breathe. Bitcoin surged ahead. Ethereum trailed behind but has yet to establish its independence. What about TON? It's making a case for itself, but the final verdict remains pending.

The next developments will depend significantly on stability. If the dollar remains weak and the Fed doesn’t unsettle investors, there’s potential for capital to flow into lagging altcoins. However, if volatility makes a comeback — if policy takes an unexpected turn or macro sentiment shifts — Bitcoin will likely tighten its hold, leaving ETH and TON in the waiting room, flipping through outdated magazines.