In Brief
Bitcoin continues to struggle beneath the $100K level as ETF outflows and a recent Bybit breach weigh heavily on the market. Meanwhile, Ethereum contends with security issues but is seeing an uptick in whale activity, and TON is gaining traction with the launch of its Bitcoin bridge.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is struggling to break through the elusive $100K barrier. This week was no exception as every effort to gain higher ground was met with resistance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs faced a significant outflow of $430 million, dampening hopes for a sustained upward trend.
Weekly inflows of crypto assets as seen in late 2024 and early 2025 (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares
Even BlackRock’s ETF, which now commands more than half of the market share, couldn’t change the current situation. Nevertheless, institutions are not retreating – MicroStrategy is preparing for another significant purchase, raising $2 billion to add more Bitcoin to its portfolio.
Purchases of Bitcoin by Strategy. Source: SaylorTracker
A significant event this week was the massive $1.4 billion hack of Bybit, carried out by the notorious Lazarus Group.
Source: Ben Zhou
This heist stands as the largest in crypto history. Despite Bybit’s attempts to recover from the incident, fears regarding fund laundering and potential downward pressure on the market are overshadowing the trading landscape. Additionally, broader economic factors are not favoring the situation.
DXY Index (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
The Federal Reserve remains cautious about reducing interest rates, while the sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries indicates a retreat from riskier assets by investors.
BTC/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
Current price action shows Bitcoin struggling to hold territory. After a brief foray towards $99,200, it quickly lost momentum and retreated to around $95K. With the 50-day moving average at $96,423 now serving as resistance and the RSI at around 45, the overall momentum appears weak. If buyers fail to enter the market soon, Bitcoin may drift lower towards the $92K-$93K range before finding solid support.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum has managed to bounce back above the $3K mark, but not without some turbulence. The Bybit hack created pressure on ETH pricing, yet the exchange’s emergency buyback of nearly $300 million in Ether helped to stabilize the market.
Source: Justin Bons
Then came the contentious topic of potentially reversing transactions to retrieve the stolen assets. However, this proposal was dismissed by core developer Tim Beiko, who described it as ‘technically intractable’. This brought some calm, but security concerns regarding centralized exchanges remain prevalent.
Nonetheless, there’s a sense of underlying optimism among investors. Major holders are removing ETH from exchanges, hinting that a supply squeeze might be on the horizon.
ETH/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
Ethereum has been caught in a volatile trading range, oscillating between $2,600 and $2,850, with sellers caping upward movements. The 50-day moving average at $2,722 has emerged as a critical level, and currently, ETH is hovering around there. The RSI reading of 46 indicates weakening momentum. Should buyers fail to step up, another decline toward $2,600 may occur. Conversely, if buyers regain traction, there is potential for ETH to rise back towards the $2,800-$2,850 range in the near term.
Toncoin (TON)
Toncoin has been gaining traction steadily yet quietly. After a period of price stabilization, TON’s value is showing signs of life, moving back above its 50-day moving average, with the RSI around 58 indicating a bit of bullish sentiment. If Bitcoin and Ethereum manage to maintain their stability, TON could see upward movement, particularly with DeFi activities on its network inching forward.
TON/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
The launch of the TON Teleport BTC testnet is the most notable development, paving the way for Bitcoin to transition into the TON ecosystem. This means BTC holders can now engage in yield farming, collateralized loans, and cross-chain transfers – all without going through a centralized exchange. If widely adopted, this could significantly enhance liquidity and bolster the stature of TON’s DeFi sector.
At the moment, TON is still moving in concert with Bitcoin and Ethereum, but it’s accumulating the fundamental catalysts that may propel it toward its own breakout. Should Bitcoin overcome its stagnation and investors regain their risk appetite, TON might be primed for growth. It’s not there just yet, but with the rise of DeFi initiatives and a Bitcoin bridge on the horizon, it’s shaping up to be one of the more intriguing altcoins to keep an eye on.
Overall, the market feels somewhat stuck in a state of uncertainty. The Bybit breach sent shockwaves through the community, ETF outflows are compounding the challenges, and macroeconomic uncertainty keeps traders on guard. However, institutional players remain active, and buying activity persists. If Bitcoin can regain ground above $106K, we could see a rapid escalation. Until then, it’s a waiting game, and there’s still the threat of a further decline looming.
Disclaimer
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