In Brief
Bitcoin slipped beneath the $100K threshold due to withdrawals from ETFs, while Ethereum remains challenged at the $3.6K mark, despite recent network upgrades. Meanwhile, TON is rising in the blockchain rankings as its activity and incentives increase.
Bitcoin News & Macro
This week, Bitcoin’s journey towards six figures continued to captivate attention, fueled by significant institutional movements. For instance, MicroStrategy made headlines once more by acquiring an additional 15,300 BTC for approximately $1.5 billion.
Source: Michael Saylor
As a result, their overall holdings have surged to an astonishing 439,000 BTC, estimated to be worth around $27 billion. This marks yet another resounding affirmation of Bitcoin’s potential as a long-term asset. However, the positive sentiment faced a setback midweek when Bitcoin ETFs experienced unprecedented outflows amounting to $671.9 million in just one day.
Source: Fairside Investors
Understandably, this led to ripples in the market, briefly causing Bitcoin’s price to dip below $100K before it managed to make a recovery.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve made waves with an interest rate reduction and a stern forecast on inflation for 2025.
This news has introduced some instability in the markets, unsettling risk assets such as Bitcoin. On the flip side, El Salvador doubled down on its Bitcoin initiative, purchasing another 11 BTC right after securing a $1.4 million loan agreement with the IMF.
Though the loan agreement limits government involvement in Bitcoin initiatives, this modest yet significant purchase illustrates that the nation remains committed to its crypto-centric approach.
Source: IMF
With that being said, let’s delve into the charts and see what they reveal.
BTC Price Analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s six-figure endeavor encountered obstacles this week, with a sharp decline from the $100,000 psychological level.
BTC/USD 1D Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
After a fleeting attempt to reach $104,000, the price met substantial resistance, leaving behind long wicks that signify classic bull exhaustion. The breakdown managed to cut through the $96,000 mark (a pivotal weekly open), and now we find ourselves testing the 50-EMA, currently at around $92,900. This level has previously demonstrated robust support, but breaching it could pave the way to $90,000 or even lower. Late-week trading behaviors indicate indecisiveness: sharp fluctuations up and down, with no clear directional trend. However, the bearish close beneath $96,000 signals that momentum is leaning toward the bears – at least for the time being.
BTC/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, the price movement has been enclosed within a descending channel. With lower highs and lower lows, it appears textbook bearish. The RSI dipped into the oversold territory during the drop to $94,000, prompting a weak uptick that failed to reach the midline. Sellers are evidently in control, and the inability to reclaim $96,000 as support raises alarms for bulls. Still, the $92,000-$93,000 range is a critical area to monitor; a false breakdown here might trigger a quick rally back towards the mid-$90,000s. However, if the bears prevail, the dream of hitting six figures will seem increasingly distant.
Ethereum News & Macro
Ethereum isn’t lagging behind in the overall market enthusiasm. A hot topic of discussion is the potential increase in gas limits, with about 10% of validators supporting the initiative.
Ethereum gas limit signaling tracker. Source: gaslimit.pics
Developers indicate this change could reduce transaction fees by up to 33%, although concerns remain regarding its impact on network stability. This is crucial for users frustrated by high fees and scalability challenges.
In addition, the EigenLayer protocol has rolled out a testnet that allows for slashing, locking up a substantial $15.4 billion, as reported by DefiLlama.
An illustration of an Operator delegating unique stakes. Source: ELIP-002 GitHub
On the regulatory side, the SEC has given the green light for Bitcoin-Ether ETFs from Hashdex and Franklin, paving the way for more institutional and retail involvement in ETH. This could lead to fresh liquidity and an expanded reach for the core asset of the network.
The SEC has approved Hashdex and Franklin Templeton to issue and trade shares of their crypto index ETFs. Source: SEC
NFTs are also back in the limelight, with Ethereum collections like Pudgy Penguins and Azuki generating $304 million in trading volume. So, it seems NFTs aren’t going anywhere, right?
7 out of the top 10 NFT collections for the week are Ethereum-based. Source: CryptoSlam
However, analyzing the price charts indicates that Ether has yet to demonstrate its ability to exceed the much-anticipated $4,000 threshold. Let’s discuss that.
ETH Price Analysis
In terms of price, Ethereum has found itself in a difficult position over the last week, mirroring Bitcoin’s challenges in maintaining its position above $100,000.
ETH/USD 1D Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
On the daily chart, ETH has repeatedly been denied access near $3,600, with the 50-day EMA around $3,418 acting as a strong resistance level. After falling out from a consolidation phase, the price has settled between $3,200 and $3,400. So far, $3,200 is proving to be critical support. Buyers made a brief appearance near the weekly open at about $3,400, but sellers swiftly took back control, suggesting a lack of forward momentum for any sustained recovery. The RSI, which has been declining and is hovering around the oversold area, illustrates a waning bullish strength. Thus, ETH finds itself in a precarious situation where even the smallest bounces seem to lead to sell-offs.
ETH/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, ETH has established a descending channel similar to Bitcoin. Buyers appear to be defending this support level, suggesting some accumulation. However, the failure to test the 50-EMA at $3,673 indicates that upward movement remains restricted. A rejection near $3,350 midweek highlighted the sellers’ strength in the short term, as intraday rallies continue to falter. This bearish sentiment mirrors the wider market, where ETH, much like Bitcoin, struggles to reclaim significant psychological levels. If $3,200 gives way, all attention will shift to $3,000 – a crucial level that has played a pivotal role in previous cycles. But as always, Bitcoin remains the current market leader.
TON News & Macro
Meanwhile, the TON ecosystem is buzzing with updates, as is its nature. While nothing groundbreaking has emerged yet, the developments are enough to keep investors optimistic. The TONCO DEX has launched a liquidity migration tool, allowing providers from STONfi and DeDust to transition their positions with convenience.
Source: TONCO
This initiative could attract more liquidity and boost activity, creating a solid momentum for the ecosystem.
Source: EVAA
The EVAA Protocol is also catching attention with its generous 100,000 TON giveaway. Users staking TON, stTON, or tsTON as collateral not only gain access to USDT loans but also earn rewards in TON. And here’s the twist: because of their negative interest rate model, borrowers actually earn interest instead of paying it. This could certainly attract users, in our opinion.
Most importantly, TON has demonstrated an astonishing rise within the blockchain rankings, achieving the 8th spot in daily activity, even surpassing Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of user engagement. That’s quite an achievement. This increased attention could easily translate to more investor interest and upward price movement.
TON Price Analysis
Now, what do the charts reveal? Over the past week, TON has been caught in a back-and-forth struggle between $5.20 and $5.50, fluctuating within a narrow range after a sharp dip earlier this month.
Buyers have consistently emerged near $5.20, driving the price upward each time it’s tested. However, every attempt to rally towards $5.50 has faced significant selling pressure. It’s a classic case of consolidation, where neither side has gained a decisive upper hand. The overarching downtrend remains evident, as suggested by the 50-day EMA situated above the price near $5.83, acting as a barrier to any potential recovery.
This sideways movement isn’t just a passing phase – it’s a reflection of the impact from Bitcoin’s recent decline, which has pulled many altcoins into a phase of correction. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, we can spot a notable accumulation close to $5.20; however, the bulls seem hesitant, lacking the assurance needed for a breakout. The activity around the weekly open, sitting at approximately $5.35, has been somewhat subdued, highlighting a general absence of strong momentum in the market. Should the price dip below $5.20, we might see a swift decline toward $5.00; conversely, a decisive breach above $5.50 could herald a brief uptick in price. As it stands, the market is in a wait-and-see pattern, looking for a significant trigger to shift the balance.
Disclaimer
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