Weekly Crypto Snapshot: Bitcoin and Altcoins: SUI, HMSTR, SOL, EIGEN

Some observers may see this price behavior as uninteresting; however, enthusiasts who study Bitcoin's cycles can provide a technical perspective. A solid comprehension of Bitcoin and the greater cryptocurrency ecosystem hinges on grasping Bitcoin's 60-day cycles, with key indicators such as Stoch RSI and Stochastic playing critical roles in revealing our standing within these cycles.

By analyzing the Stochastic indicator over a 3-day and 1-week frame, several intriguing patterns come to light. The 3-day indicator peaked at the end of September when Bitcoin reached $66,000, but has since tapered off, contributing to the price drop into the $60,000 bracket. From a cyclical analysis, Bitcoin has hit a mid-cycle low in this ongoing 60-day cycle, entering the second half of the cycle.

Price trajectory hinges on the violet line

The pivotal moment for Bitcoin is approaching in the coming days; it must maintain its stability and ideally trend upwards. Achieving this will cause the 3-day Stochastic indicator to reset, potentially paving the way for an optimistic October.

Last Thursday marked Bitcoin's mid-cycle low, which was affirmed on Friday, triggering a buy signal within the 12-hour range. This appears to be an exemplary cycle setup, yet the true test lies just ahead.

Beyond cycle analysis, another beneficial tactic in crypto trading is evaluating a project’s Total Value Locked (TVL) against its token’s price movement. There’s rarely a perfect match; usually, if a token’s value rises while its TVL stagnates, it might signal overvaluation. Alternatively, if the price lags behind the growth in TVL, it typically suggests the project is undervalued. Check out the following chart for SUI:

Altcoins: SUI

We can see a striking correlation between TVL & $SUI price

Observe how the red line moved over summer 2023. Price hovered around $0.30, while the TVL drastically fell from $900 million to about $100 million—an 80% plunge. However, this was soon followed by a remarkable recovery, with the price skyrocketing from approximately $0.50 in October to hitting around $2.00 by April. Throughout this period, an upward trend was also noted in SUI’s TVL.

April represented the peak of the token's overvaluation, leading to a decline back to about $0.50 in just a few months—an ideal chance to buy. Interestingly, the TVL didn’t face a similar sharp drop, only decreasing from $900 million to about $500 million before bouncing back in September, while the price stayed below $1. These market opportunities are often fleeting and require swift action to take advantage of them.

EigenLayer ($EIGEN) – Hype Surrounding Restaking Project is Met with Security Concerns, Price Declines

Last week, EigenLayer encountered a serious hacking incident, resulting in its price slashing from $4.00 to $3.00 in just one week. To add to the tension, a significant token release is scheduled for October 15th, where over 1 million tokens—valued at more than $3 million—will be made available. Nonetheless, the founders of EigenLayer have remained calm, assuring the community that this hack was an isolated event and will not deter future developments.

Still, investor confidence is shaken due to the recent security breach, the impending token release, and the substantial Fully Diluted Value (FDV) nearing $6 billion.

Solana (SOL) Recovery – Remarkable Performance Over the Last Two Years

$SOL has been making investors grin since the FTX crash of 2022

 

Solana has exhibited phenomenal performance across the last couple of years. It’s easy to look back at SOL’s steadfastness compared to Bitcoin and think, “If only I had bought in when SOL was at just $9…” Yet if you examine the weekly cycles (illustrated by the red line on the chart), you’ll find that in the last four instances where this line dipped below 20 (indicating a cycle bottom), SOL has consistently outperformed Bitcoin in subsequent weeks.

Most Trending Game on Telegram: Hamster Combat (HMSTR)

Nobody desires to see such a price trend unfold…

Do you remember Hamster Combat? Yes, the quirky game where players embark on various quests to become the ultimate CEO of a crypto exchange. It grabbed considerable attention due to its unique tapping mechanics and gained traction after its launch on notable exchanges such as Binance and MEXC. However, just like a multitude of altcoins, it has endured volatility since its launch, with a 33.63% price drop in the last ten days.

In recent days, though, $HMST has shown some resilience, bouncing back with a 10% increase. But regarding its cycles? It may still be too premature to analyze cycles for this freshly launched token. For meaningful cycle analysis, at least eight months of price data are usually required, so for now, we leave the price movement of HMST to short-term speculators and traders.

The listing of $HMST brings to mind BONK’s initial offering on Binance in December 2023. Initially, BONK faced a downward trend for three weeks, during which it lost 70% of its value, leading many to label it another doomed ‘meme’ project. However, buyers eventually entered the fray, driving BONK above its listing price just three months later.

In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent price activity aligns closely with its mid-cycle tendencies, suggesting that if the momentum persists, October could be a bullish month. SUI seems undervalued at the moment, with its TVL increasing, representing a significant buying opportunity. Meanwhile, EigenLayer ($EIGEN) is amidst short-term uncertainties due to a hacking incident and forthcoming token unlocks. Solana (SOL) continues its pattern of promising rebounds after cycle lows, rendering it an attractive option. Hamster Combat ($HMSTR) remains speculative but may repeat the bounce-back seen in previous meme token recoveries. A keen sense of timing and detailed analysis will be essential to seize these opportunities.

Final Thoughts  

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