Crypto Weekly Roundup: A Look at Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Toncoin's Recent Activities

Bitcoin News & Macro 

Let’s delve into the notable movements in the crypto market during the last week of July. The week began with a surge in bullish sentiment, propelling Bitcoin towards the $70,000 mark, bolstered by rising futures premiums. However, by the middle of the week, profit-taking led to BTC's consolidation around $68,000 amidst growing technical resistance.

Source: Laevitas.ch

Institutional enthusiasm surged as Hong Kong rolled out its inaugural inverse Bitcoin ETF via CSOP, coupled with significant inflows into BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. While these developments initially pushed prices higher, they also introduced a degree of volatility. On the geopolitical front, developments such as Trump contemplating Bitcoin as a strategic asset and Biden stepping down from the 2024 race stirred market sentiment, causing notable price fluctuations.

On the technological side, Bitcoin’s mainnet achieved a significant milestone with its first-ever verified ZK-proof, a long-term advancement that could draw in more developers.

Looking forward, all the attention is on the SEC's impending decisions regarding Bitcoin ETF applications, which have the potential to redefine the landscape. Analysts have their eyes on crucial resistance levels around $69K, eyeing the possibility of a resurgence to $72K and beyond.

BTC Price Analysis

Examining Bitcoin’s (BTC) trading activity from the past week reveals a robust rally, breaking through the previously established resistance at $66,000 and converting it into support. This bullish drive gained momentum as the price surpassed both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, aligning short-term trends with long-term perspectives. A bullish flag pattern materialized beforehand, indicating continuation and pushing Bitcoin nearly to the $70,000 mark, a psychologically significant target. The shorter candle wicks reflect strong bullish control.

Source: TradingView

When we zoom into the 4-hour chart, the breakout above $66,000 is evident, confirmed by multiple candles closing above this threshold, thereby establishing it anew as support.

Source: TradingView

The market oscillated between $66,000 and $67,000, creating a bullish flag pattern that allowed for the absorption of gains prior to the next upward movement. Following this consolidation, a bullish surge took Bitcoin to $70,000, with the 50-EMA serving as dynamic support during minor corrections. The RSI remained in bullish territory, indicating strong buying momentum, while also suggesting a potential short-term overextension.

Crucial levels like $66,000 and $70,000 have been pivotal, with breaks indicating growing bullish confidence. High trading volumes around the $66,000 level validate its significance. The consolidated trading action leading up to the breakout suggests that this move was well-expected, rather than fortuitous.

The weekly close above $66,000 last week has set up the potential for a continued rally (who knows, maybe it’ll happen as soon as next week?). Daily closes above this threshold reinforce bullish sentiment. Sustaining above $70,000 is essential for maintaining this positive trajectory, with possible targets set for $75,000 or even $80,000. Should $70,000 encounter resistance, a retest of the $66,000 support may occur.

Ethereum News & Macro 

Now let's shift our focus to Ethereum. The launch of spot Ether ETFs by firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale was a major event this week, expected to infuse billions into the Ethereum ecosystem. Nonetheless, this excitement was somewhat mitigated by $1.5 billion in outflows from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust, leading to volatility despite the initial positive price movement.

Source: SoSo Value

Vitalik Buterin’s introduction of Circle STARKs came amidst a remarkable 127% increase in layer-2 addresses. Despite these positive developments, Ethereum's price experienced a drop of over 8% within 24 hours following the ETF launch due to a 'sell-the-news' phenomenon.

On the regulatory side, the SEC approved VanEck’s Ethereum ETF, affecting broader market moods following Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, which initially boosted market sentiment before correcting sharply. As we look forward, analysts foresee a potential price recovery driven by anticipated ETF inflows. Unsurprisingly, regulatory and geopolitical factors will play a pivotal role moving forward, with the political climate heating up as election dates approach.

ETH Price Analysis

With that context, let’s analyze Ethereum’s (ETH) trading trajectory over the past week. The daily chart indicates a drop to about $2,700, a key support level that has previously seen significant activity. Buyers quickly stepped in, propelling ETH back above $3,300, effectively flipping it into support—a classic instance of role reversal. A rise past the 20-day and 50-day EMAs might indicate a shift in momentum.

Source: TradingView

Drilling down into the 4-hour chart, things become even more intriguing. After breaching the $3,300 level, ETH entered a consolidation phase between $3,300 and $3,500, forming a bullish flag pattern.

Source: TradingView

This period of consolidation allowed the market to reset itself before launching into another upward push. Following the breakout from the flag, ETH aimed for the $3,500 mark but encountered a slight pullback, finding support at the 50-EMA. The RSI consistently hovered above 50, showcasing robust buying interest while also hinting at potential short-term exhaustion.

Breaking through the $3,300 and $3,500 levels demonstrates the eagerness of buyers, and the volume of trades corroborates that these movements were well-anticipated. The close above $3,300 last week positioned the market favorably for this week's rally, mirroring Bitcoin’s momentum. If ETH can maintain its position above $3,500, targets of $3,700 or even higher could be on the table. However, failure to do so might lead to a revisit of $3,300.

Toncoin News & Macro

This past week hasn't seen much action for Toncoin (TON), yet some noteworthy progress was still made. On July 25, TON unveiled gasless fees with its innovative W5 smart wallet, facilitating efficient transactions using USDT and Notcoin on the TON blockchain. While this may not sound revolutionary, TON has also made headlines as the biggest gainer in DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) this year, showcasing an astonishing year-to-date growth of 5087.9%, underscoring its rising reputation in the decentralized finance arena.

On July 28, Tether’s integration of USDT on the TON blockchain via TokenPocket enhanced its utility and made USDT transactions seamless, expanding its applicability. Although these advancements might appear relatively routine, they effectively position TON favorably within the broader landscape of cryptocurrency, which is currently experiencing significant movements from prominent players like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Thus, Toncoin’s steady growth within DeFi lays a solid foundation for further adoption and price growth.

TON Price Analysis

Now let’s analyze Toncoin’s (TON) price dynamics over the past week. The highlighted areas and dashed lines represent recent support and resistance levels. The daily chart indicates a steep decline below the $7.00 support, converting it into resistance. Strong bearish price action illustrated considerable selling pressure, reaffirming the bearish trend as prices remained below both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs.

Source: TradingView

After dropping below $7.00, TON hit a low around $6.40 according to the 4-hour chart. Following the sharp sell-off, there was a slight recovery attempt, but resistance around $6.80 hampered further gains, leading to a period of short-term consolidation. The price struggled to gain momentum, with the 50-EMA acting as a formidable barrier.

Source: TradingView

During the sell-off, the 4-hour RSI dropped into oversold territory but returned to neutral, signaling indecision in the market.

Keep an eye on $7.00 as a critical resistance level and $6.50 as crucial support. A breakout above $7.00 could trigger a bullish reversal, while a drop below $6.50 might drag prices down to $6.00. If TON manages to reclaim $7.00, it could indicate a positive shift, but given the current circumstances, that seems challenging.

Recent daily closes below this level have reinforced a bearish outlook, making any upward rebound difficult in the near term.