Weekly Crypto Market Overview: Unpacking Trends in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Toncoin

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin News & Macro

The Bitcoin marketplace has recently been filled with noteworthy price fluctuations. For instance, Tesla's impending re-entry into Bitcoin payment processing—thanks to enhanced sustainability within the network—may significantly shift the landscape.

Source: Elon Musk (X/Twitter)

Major institutional initiatives, like Deutsche Telekom's plans for mining and MicroStrategy's impressive $700 million Bitcoin stock liquidation, spotlight the growing trust from institutional investors.

Source: Daniel Sempere Pico (X/Twitter)

At the same time, significant advancements in regulations have emerged, including Australia's approval of a Bitcoin ETF and a proposal for a Bitcoin bank in El Salvador, both of which are likely to elevate Bitcoin's credibility.

Source: Julian Fahrer (X/Twitter)

Conversely, analysts from CryptoQuant have detected a break in an ongoing 18-month increase in hash rates.

Source: CryptoQuant

Although this disruption has sparked some concerns, experts believe its impact on the price will be minimal, maintaining confidence in long-term growth projections.

BTC Price Analysis 

Over the past week (represented in the blue box), Bitcoin saw dramatic price fluctuations, which included various breakouts and pullbacks.

BTC/USD 1D Coinbase, Source: TradingView

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin plunged below the critical support level of $68,000, leading to an abrupt drop. Despite several attempts to recover, Bitcoin struggled to uplift from this threshold, repeatedly bouncing off the $66,000 mark. This consistent failure to reclaim the previously supportive level evidences the prevailing bearish market sentiment.

On the daily chart, the 20 EMA (marked in blue) currently sits above the 50 EMA (in orange), but their convergence may suggest an impending bearish crossover if the downtrend continues. Should this occur, it could trigger further bearish momentum. Bitcoin's price remains below both EMAs, strengthening the bearish perspective for the short term.

On the 4-hour chart analysis, Bitcoin has formed a descending triangle, a typically bearish pattern signaling potential for more declines. The support line has faced numerous tests, indicating a dwindling strength among buyers. Sellers appear to be gaining the upper hand, exerting downward pressure on prices.

BTC/USD 4H Coinbase, Source: TradingView

A variety of Doji candlesticks appeared throughout the week, indicating market indecisiveness and possible reversal points, though the follow-through has been lackluster. A consistent trend of bearish candlesticks shows that sellers continue to maintain control. This pattern of market indecision, combined with a renewed wave of selling, suggests that bearish sentiment prevails.

The price has consistently lingered beneath the 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart, signifying that sellers dominate the short-term trend. Following a cooldown period, the 4-hour RSI is hovering in the 40-45 range, illustrating that while Bitcoin isn't in the oversold territory yet, there is a robust bearish momentum. There are no notable divergences, implying that the current trend could withstand.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum News & Macro

Ethereum’s market activity is bustling with new developments. A highlight is the anticipated approval of spot Ethereum ETFs, which Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas estimates might launch in U.S. markets by July 2. This prospective approval injects a hopeful outlook despite recent short-term price declines.

Source: Eric Balchunas (X/Twitter)

In regulatory news, SEC Chair Gary Gensler's forecast for approvals of spot Ether ETFs this summer is drawing attention. Should regulatory barriers be overcome, Ethereum could potentially see substantial gains supported by its solid market fundamentals.

Also noteworthy are the technological advancements taking place. The introduction of a pooled staking option by MetaMask broadens access, removing the hefty requirement of staking 32 ETH for participation.

Nonetheless, challenges loom on the horizon. A report from Liquid Collective and Obol has pointed out significant risks related to Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade, scheduled for 2025.

Source: A report by Obol & Liquid Collective

Concerns regarding diversity among clients, operators, and cloud services may present hurdles, but this is part of the crypto landscape's ongoing evolution.

ETH Price Analysis 

In the last week, Ethereum's price action closely followed Bitcoin’s fluctuations. Price assessments reveal Ethereum’s tenacity, but derivatives metrics indicate that a short-term rally to $3,700 may not be feasible. Still, an overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, bolstered by macroeconomic factors and accumulation by wealthy investors.

The essential support level near $3,575 (depicted by the blue dashed line) has played a significant role in Ethereum's recent actions, similar to how Bitcoin's interactions have unfolded with its $68,000 support level.

ETH/USD 1D Coinbase, Source: TradingView

At the start of the week, Ethereum faced a sharp drop below $3,575, triggering a noticeable decline that mirrored Bitcoin's descent beneath $68,000. Despite several attempts to rebound, Ethereum found it challenging to reclaim the $3,575 mark and repeatedly bounced back around the $3,500 area. This trend of ineffective recoveries, combined with uninterrupted selling pressure, mirrors Bitcoin's experience as it sought to reclaim its critical support level.

On the 1-day moving averages, the 20 EMA (blue line) remains above the 50 EMA (orange line), yet both are converging. This trend suggests the possibility of a bearish crossover should the downtrend persist. The potential crossover indicating more bearish momentum also resonates with Bitcoin's moving averages. Currently, Ethereum's price has fallen below both EMAs, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the short-term.

BTC/USD 4H Coinbase, Source: TradingView

Shifting attention to the 4-hour chart, Ethereum has established a falling wedge formation, which has led to a traditional short-term breakout. Nevertheless, the following lower lows and the inability to break through the support level—now acting as resistance from the prior week—suggest further declines ahead. The poor follow-through accompanying continued bearish activity confirms that sellers are indeed in control.

Ethereum's price has continually hovered beneath the 50 EMA, reflecting a prevailing bearish trend, akin to Bitcoin's trajectory. The RSI is situated around the 40-45 range, indicating that Ethereum isn't yet in the oversold range, but it continues to exhibit noticeable bearish momentum. The lack of significant divergences in the RSI may point to the persistence of the current trend.

Toncoin (TON)

Toncoin News & Macro 

Despite the impressive 34% rally of TON, concerns linger about a possible correction despite bullish forecasts suggesting a 65% rise in July. The increase in daily active addresses indicates heightened user engagement; however, it’s critical to understand that this metric does not include Ethereum layer-2 solutions, offering a more nuanced perspective on TON's network activity.

Real-world integrations, such as Travala's decision to accept TON for travel reservations, showcase its increasing practical applicability.

Meanwhile, TON's short-term price direction largely depends on Bitcoin's fluctuations. As Bitcoin stabilizes around $66K, traders are keenly observing for breakthrough indicators. A successful breach of $68,000 for Bitcoin could trigger a rally not only for TON but for other prominent altcoins as well. However, the current forecast for BTC remains uncertain.

TON Price Analysis 

While Bitcoin and Ethereum have displayed bearish formations, TON has managed to sustain a more bullish structure characterized by higher highs and higher lows, notwithstanding some weakness towards the week's conclusion.

At the start of the week, TON experienced a robust rally, surpassing $7.50 and moving towards $8.00. However, after reaching a peak near $8.10, it faced resistance and retraced as traders began to take profits.

ETH/USD 1D ByBit, Source: TradingView

Throughout the week, TON has exhibited higher highs and higher lows, hinting at a bullish channel. Yet, by week's end, bearish candlesticks and long upper wicks suggested that sellers were starting to exert influence, indicating a possible reversal.

On the 1-day chart, the 20 EMA (blue line) is above the 50 EMA (orange line), maintaining a bullish framework. Nevertheless, the price is currently testing the 20 EMA, and breaching this level could denote a significant shift in momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the price has remained above the 50 EMA, supporting the bullish trend, but recent movements indicate it is approaching the 50 EMA, suggesting that the upward trajectory may be at risk.

BTC/USD 4H Coinbase, Source: TradingView

The RSI on the 4-hour chart remains around the 40-45 range, much like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which implies that TON hasn't entered the oversold category but still carries bearish momentum. The absence of major divergences signals that the ongoing trend could continue, mirroring the overall market sentiment.