Bitfinex: Bitcoin Impacted By Tariff Policies, But Institutional Investors Continue To Increase Holdings As Market Shows Resilience

Bitfinex released its latest market analysis, observing that Bitcoin’s recent price movements have increasingly reflected broader macroeconomic trends, particularly responding to US policy changes under President Donald Trump. Over the past week, Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000, which aligns with expectations for reduced volatility and a possible short-term market correction. Although Bitcoin started 2025 with a 10% increase in January, its momentum has slowed, with the price remaining within a 15% range for the past 65 days.

The analysis also highlighted that Bitcoin has been more responsive than US equity markets to macroeconomic developments. A double-top pattern seen on both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 charts began with Bitcoin. The most recent market event—the announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump—caused a 0.5% drop in the S&P 500 last Friday, while Bitcoin experienced a sharper decline. Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to 0.8, the highest it has been in five months, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro-driven risk asset.

Despite short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin remains structurally strong on longer timeframes. Since the US election, Bitcoin has outperformed traditional markets, rising from $67,000 to over $100,000, while equities have had a more volatile recovery, the firm noted.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,684, showing a 3.65% decline in the last 24 hours. Its intraday low and high were $92,584 and $99,388, respectively, based on data from CoinMarketCap.

Crypto Sector At Pivotal Point, Awaiting Further Moves From Federal Reserve

In this context, Bitfinex notes that while the US economy demonstrates resilience through strong consumer spending and overall economic growth, Bitcoin is also facing challenges from policy uncertainty, trade disruptions, and persistent inflation.

The Federal Reserve recently kept interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50 percent, indicating that policymakers are not yet prepared to ease monetary conditions until there is a clear reduction in inflation. Consumer spending rose in December, with real spending increasing by 0.4 percent, which supports economic growth but creates challenges for the Federal Reserve in determining its next steps.

Inflation remains above the central bank’s 2 percent target, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index inflation standing at 2.8 percent year-over-year. Despite slower wage growth, a tight labor market and potential immigration restrictions could push labor costs higher, contributing to inflationary pressures. At the same time, economic growth for the year ended at 2.3 percent, driven by strong household consumption and increased government spending. However, risks persist due to slowing business investment and trade uncertainties.

As a result, Bitfinex notes, markets have adjusted expectations regarding rate cuts, lowering the probability of near-term easing. With both political and economic factors in flux, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will shift toward policy easing or continue its restrictive stance to manage inflation.

While the US economy remains resilient amid uncertainty, the cryptocurrency sector is also at a pivotal point. The sector is experiencing increased institutional accumulation, financial innovation, and deeper integration with traditional financial systems. As inflationary pressures hold the Federal Reserve’s policies steady, market participants are closely monitoring how digital assets will react to broader macroeconomic trends, shifts in monetary policy, and the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies by corporations.