AINOW: The Advent of AI Is Guiding the World Toward a New, Lasting Cold War

This piece draws from a discussion featured on Telegram. channel created by Sergey Karelov.

It seems increasingly plausible that Orwell's eerie predictions are manifesting once more in our 21st-century landscape.

When people hear Orwell's name, they often think of his iconic novel '1984.' Penned in 1948, this book paints a haunting picture of a society where every move is monitored. Orwell chillingly introduced concepts like the 'Ministry of Truth,' which alters history, 'Thought Police,' and 'Big Brother,' through which people are controlled. These ideas have evolved into widely spread notions such as 'war is peace,' 'hate week,' 'thought crime,' and 'newspeak.' While Orwell was reflecting on his time rather than forecasting the future, many readers found his insights prophetic.

However, another remarkable prophetic piece from Orwell — an essay from 1945 — lays out predictions that strikingly align with contemporary realities. You and the Atomic Bomb In this essay, Orwell astutely foresaw the global consequences that the advent of the atomic bomb would bring about. He indicated that such advancements might result in a 'long peace' devoid of large-scale conflicts, but the trade-off for this artificial 'peace' would be an ongoing cold war, particularly involving the US and the USSR, who were still working towards acquiring nuclear capabilities.

And indeed, his predictions became reality. Even more astonishing is how Orwell managed to articulate the dynamics of historical progression as it relates to weaponry. progress of technology .

• The trajectory of global history can be understood as an evolution of weaponry.
• As technology evolves, increasingly potent weapons emerge.
• These new armaments can be categorized into 'simple' — relatively affordable and easily produced by any nation (think bows, firearms, grenades) — and 'complex' — expensive and typically produced only by major powers (like tanks and bombers).
• 'Complex' weapons inherently favor dominance, boosting the power of the strong. On the flip side, 'simple' weapons can be more egalitarian, empowering the less fortunate until justice finds its way.
• Nuclear arms epitomize the idea of being 'super complex' and thus 'super tyrannical.'
• The existence of atomic bombs could effectively strip exploited communities of their potential to revolt while simultaneously laying the groundwork for a military equilibrium among nuclear states.
• Nuclear wielders: since mutual annihilation is off the table, they’re likely to continue their individual dominion over the world. Consequently, we might witness a chilling stability akin to the enslaved societies of the past, albeit with an enhanced prosperity stemming from technological progress.

What Orwell foresaw in the last century appears poised to repeat itself due to the emergence of a contemporary 'superweapon' that is equally 'super complex' and 'super tyrannical.' This time, we're referring to generative AI. large models .

The authors of the report A recent report called 'Predictability and Surprise in Large Generative Models' highlighted that most pivotal decisions regarding these advanced technologies will rest in the hands of a select few capital-rich firms in just two countries.

The new large and serious AINOW report 'Landscape 2023: Confrontation of Technical Power' discusses a similar theme. Only a limited number of companies with vast resources can spearhead large-scale developments. AI models.”

As Orwell noted: 'If the atomic bomb were cheap and mass-producible like a bicycle, the world might see a return to chaos, but this could also bring an end to sovereign states and usher in a centralized police apparatus.' This sentiment is entirely relevant to AI's evolution.

Read more about AI:

• All Major Tech Firms Involved in LLM Development Need to Prioritize the Security of Their Models.
• A team of researchers from the University of California has created the Machiavelli Benchmark to evaluate the efficacy and risks of AI systems.
• Humans Could Potentially Bring About Their Own Downfall by Unleashing This AI Pandora's Box.